Internazionale – Milan preview: Derby della Madonnina

A derby of contrasts

By no means, it is breaking news that Milan is far from their best days, and the UEFA Champions League title of 2007, as well as their 7 UCL titles, do feel like that happened ages ago, but the fact that their rivals Inter Milan have improved and even became a bit of a threat to the recently undisputed supremacy of Juventus in Italy may have made the fans feel like things are even more bitter.

We definitely do have an imbalanced derby ahead of us, but do the current odds reflect accurately the situation? Wrong odds always mean valuable bets out there, so let’s have a look at the situation.

Inter Milan

Eriksen has recently arrived and some journalists are speculating that Conte could try an odd formation, a 3-5-1-1 aiming an easy fit to the Danish midfielder. Although the idea of Eriksen passing the ball very often to Lukaku may sound like a very obvious idea, which most defenders could predict, that tends to be the situation whether the formation is the speculated one or not.

The derby comes kind of soon after the transfer window closed and to measure whether Eriksen has the potential to make a difference as of early February is still a cloudy point.

Handanovic is still a doubt to the upcoming derby following an injury to his left hand, which may be a problem for Inter, as the most likely starting GK is very inexperienced in terms of such a prestigious derby: although Daniele Padelli is already 34, he just made his debut after years warming the bench. In a way, we can still say he is a rookie in terms of such an important game, especially as he claims to be a fan of Inter Milan since his childhood. Could such a ‘debut’ mean danger for Inter? Perhaps we could at least indicate an increased chance of Milan scoring in the game but not necessarily collecting points.

Milan

Standing at 9th post with 19 points less than the blue side of the city of Milan, we can definitely say Milan are the underdogs of this Serie A derby.

To be 9th post as of early February, after a transfer window of no major signing that indicates the potential of quick improvement, we can say that Milan’s main motivation for this derby is related to the rivalry itself rather than other goals, which could definitely impact their chances.

Betting Markets

Inter now has odds of 1.95 to win the game, which is a relatively low odd if you consider the history of this derby, however, some could argue that the current situation of both clubs could justify even lower odds.

Derbies, however, oftentimes are way more predictable than games featuring two teams of big difference of quality, in general, it is true that derbies tend to be closed games with both coaches feeling like a draw wouldn’t be a horrid result, oftentimes fielding teams with very defensive formations.

Interestingly, the very distinct moments being lived by Inter and Milan haven’t impacted significantly the odds for the draw. We can say that the odds of 3.40 are kind of the tendency for this derby even when the chances of both teams winning are rather even than those available at the football betting markets right now.

Milan to win @4.1 reflects the current situation of the classification table, and in case the red side of Milan starts the game with more focus then a live bet could prove to be interesting.

Bets that may try to speculate on the potential lack of confidence of the sub GK of Inter could be done in different ways, it could be a bet on the draw as the chances of Milan winning can be hard to predict because of their own problems, although it could also be an opportunity.

Speculative over bets, especially after in the first moments of the match in the in-running markets could also be interesting, especially if Daniele Padelli demonstrates any insecurity in the first attacks of Milan.

Guest post by: Lucas Mondelo, writer at EagleBet

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