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How to Find Value Bets in Soccer

Photo by Tembela Bohle


One of the best ways of increasing your betting success is finding bets that offer more value than others. This involves identifying opportunities where the actual perceived probability of an outcome is more than the probability reflected in the bookmaker’s odds. If the outcome goes your way, your profit will be much bigger than if you’d have wagered on other bets.

However, this is easier said than done, especially for beginners. If you are venturing into the world of soccer betting, below are some strategies you can use to increase your chances of making a profit.


Conduct Thorough Research

Doing in-depth research is the most important aspect of identifying value bets. You should therefore start by learning about the two teams, their performances, the players, the tactics, and the recent trends. From there, you can look at the teams in the context of playing against one another. How has each of the teams performed in past matchups, as well as against teams that play in a similar manner?

You can then look at the players, lineups, and tactics that will likely be used in the game. Consider each team’s injuries and analyze how that will affect the match. If there are injuries to crucial players, the coach may end up changing the tactics to adapt to the available players. If there are players that are returning, that may also have an effect. Ensure you stay updated with the latest news and information surrounding the players and the team, as this will allow you to identify opportunities before other bettors (betting activity affects the odds) and probably the sportsbooks.


Monitor Line Movements

Different sportsbooks offer different odds, and you can compare them to see if you can find more value in the odds offered. But besides simply comparing the odds, you need to monitor them. This is because sportsbooks keep changing the odds in response to shifting market sentiment, betting volume, or new information.

If you are eyeing a particular game that will take place on the weekend, start by looking at the odds available early on. You will notice that the odds will keep changing as the game nears. For example, the sportsbook may change the odds to attract more bets on Team B if most people are betting on Team A. However, that kind of shift is specific to the bookmaker, so you can find that the odds have not changed much on another betting site. This way, you can know where most people are placing their money and take advantage by going to another bookie.


Analyze Expected Goals (xG) Metrics

Expected Goals (xG) metrics have become the new wave in analyzing soccer matches. These metrics usually show the quality of scoring opportunities that a team creates, and it’s calculated based on factors such as shot location, shot type, and assist type. The higher the xG, the higher the quality chances of scoring created.

However, xG doesn’t always translate to the number of goals scored in a game. For example, a team can have a 2.75 xG in a game and only score a single goal. In that case, the team is underperforming as it has not taken advantage of the many scoring chances it created. A team that has been significantly underperforming or overperforming based on the xG can easily be given odds that don’t reflect the actual value as the results don’t support the statistics. However, this can be an opportunity to get high-value bets if you compare the xG of the two teams and identify patterns emerging from their performances.


Consider Team Motivation and Context

Team motivation and game context usually play a big factor in the outcome of soccer matches. For example, if a team has been on a poor run of form that has resulted in coaching changes, the first game with the new coach may not reflect recent performances. Players will be keen to impress the new manager, and this can provide a chance for value betting, as sportsbooks mostly work with facts.

Ensure that you also take into account external factors such as the league standings or cup eliminations. If a team has been losing consistently but is now on the brink of relegation, this can have a huge effect on the motivation. When you consider all these in combination with the other strengths and weaknesses of the team, you can find bets that have a higher probability than the one reflected in the odds.



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Explanation: player statistics (a/b c)

a - games played this season

b - goals scored

c - team position (d - defender, m - midfielder, f - forward, g - goalkeeper).

March 19, 2024 at 9:48 am