BRAZIL – ARGENTINA – COPA AMERICA FINAL
MATCH PREVIEW: BETTING MARKETS
THE TOURNAMENT ISSUES
The tournament was under scrutiny due to the bad covid19 situation in Brazil. The players clearly expressed that they didn’t want to play, or at least the famous players based in Europe. Poorer players based in LATAM felt like they could use the selections for personal marketing purposes, which caused fractures in the teams as famous names wanted some vacation from European football schedule life.
The worst situation related to this was the poor quality of football presented. Selections play way less often than clubs and that produces teams with less team chemistry and efficiency, especially defensively.
The nature of the tournament and the peculiarities of this edition make it hard to predict well before kick offs. I strongly suggest live bets because even handicaps can be hard to predict.
THE GAME
I don’t like the job of Tite in Brazil as the team has changed too much and too often and never really showed options for the occasions Neymar is absent.
The visitors are in big pressure because Argentina failed to win trophies for decades and the last trophy lifted was in 1993.
I also don’t think that the experience of Messi balances things in anyway. Neymar and Messi aren’t leaders at all, Messi displayed clear signs of insecurities when he faced pressure because of the ridiculous results of Argentina under his “spell as a superstar”.
I could go on and on about the problems of Brazil, but I’ve been saying the same things since the last world cup when I predicted successfully several AH profit opportunities.
I also publicly advised people to buy Belgium +0.25 AH Line when they lost to Belgium in the Russia 2018 World Cup because there was a lot of value at those odds.
ASIAN HANDICAP MARKET ANALYSIS: PRE-MATCH ODDS JULY 7TH @ 7PM London Time
Brazil -0 @ 1.62 / Argentina +0 @2.42
Quite frankly I don’t see solidity enough to say Brazil has any advantage here, not of almost 40 clicks. These odds presumes that the chance of Brazil winning this game, IN CASE there is a winner, are of 60%.
I believe that qualitatively speaking, it’s close to 50/50. At best I’d say some 55% for Brazil because of the Argentine long spell of tears if you will.
My betting decision is to hold and check the game live, maybe bet live if a team is dominating and creating chances and if the live numbers make sense too. This is what I advise you especially if you don’t follow closely CONMEBOL area selections action.
CONMEBOL SELECTIONS FOOTBALL BECOMING WORSE YEAR BY YEAR
Last but not least it it’s interesting to say to international punters, especially my friends in Europe and Asia that selections at this region live a different reality. There is only the FIFA World Cup to think about, which means the “true cycles” are every 4 years instead of 2 as we have in Europe. It means the in between presents poor quality football with Copa America being a tournament of lesser importance to the protagonists Brazil and Argentina.
The difficulty to schedule friendlies with European countries means they have little to zero chance to measure themselves against their true WC Rivals. It happened over and over with Brazil and Argentina recently: they destroy their rivals in the FIFA WORLD CUP QUALIFICATIONS and Copa America, also when the Copa America involves CONCACAF Teams (special editions), it’s like trying to get strong by lifting light weights. It just won’t happen.
I predict poor performances of these countries in the 2022 FIFA World Cup. It’s sport so anything can happen, but this is a strong tendency backed by clear evidence and any pundit at this region is aware of that.
Author: Lucas Mondelo (https://www.linkedin.com/in/lucas-mondelo-4b355aa2/)
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Explanation: player statistics (a/b c)
a - games played this season
b - goals scored
c - team position (d - defender, m - midfielder, f - forward, g - goalkeeper).
