Match: Thiem – Zverev
Pick: over 38,5 games
odd: 1.70 (Unibet)
Huge chance for both! I rate Dominic as favourite also, but not by this much, bookies are definitely little off on this one. Zverev finally started to show good tennis after 2019 and disaster edition at ATP Cup, and I would say from his press conferences and interviews, he is very confident. His game overall still lacks a little bit more aggression, but he made huge progress in the service area where he minimized his double faults and his % are really looking good. This is by far his best result on any Grand Slam, and he will not take this lightly.
Dominic on the other side activated again his ’god mode’ and made huge upset over Nadal. Every shot was spot on, and the most underrated thing was his defence. He was moving out of this world and Nadal was forced to take many additional shots. He was a little lucky on some crucial points but overall nothing can discredit his game. Problem is, the match lasted more than 4 hours and even though Thiem is known for being one of the hardest-working players on tour, he still can feel the impact. One thing I noticed when it comes to Dominic is that he rarely repeats his outstanding performance twice in a row. He gets extra motivated against big 3 (especially Nadal), but I would say his weak area is emotional emptiness the day after. There is no way Domi will perform the same against Zverev, that is a fact.
Thiem leads in H2H meetings by 6-2, but their matches are always close. Zverev must use his good form right now to put pressure on Thiem, and game-wise, he will be totally different match-up than Nadal. He plays flat, has more stoke power which means Thiem will have less time for preparation, and if serve works well for him anything can happen. I do not rate him this huge underdog in this situation, especially because of his promise and commitment beside his tennis he showed so far.
I would try ML on Sacha for value, but I think this margin is must take. I just don’t see any player taking this in 3, and with one lengthy set, this bet is probably in the bag. I hope for a good match, and let the best man progress to the Australian Open Final.
Guest post by: Aleksandar Ilić, writer at TripletaSport
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Explanation: player statistics (a/b c)
a - games played this season
b - goals scored
c - team position (d - defender, m - midfielder, f - forward, g - goalkeeper).
