Match: Djokovic – Federer
Pick: Tie break in a match / NO
odd: 2.20 (bet365)
There is simply no point to bet on any handicap or total games because bookies crashed all odds and margins. I find this bet very valuable in this situation, looking at both players through all Australian Open tournament so far.
Federer survived his 2nd scare against Sangren, and as himself said, he was very lucky. Sandgren obviously felt huge pressure and Roger took advantage. The first reason we must think of is the fitness level of Federer. He complained and took MTO against Tennys and overall he Is looking flat on this GS. He makes many UE per match, and against a player like Djokovic that is simply a big NO. For me, the winner is out of the question, the only question is by how much? Federer must be taken as class player above all other that Novak encountered so far, but again his level of tennis is not near as one when they played in O2 Arena last year. Novak is playing perfectly on this tournament, making excellent numbers from match to match, and in this state, he has too big game for Roger. He will definitely be the man in control and due to the fact he is playing with so few mistakes from the field, Roger will have a very tough time with mistakes. Djoker will penetrate deep as always on the BH side, and Roger’s BH is looking very soft at the moment. Djoker introduced his new weapon this season (2nd serve) with whom he takes lead almost every time. Also, Federer can not count on service support that much here, especially on BP’s, cause Novak’s return has been out of this world so far. Take Raonic as an example who gave away only 7 BPs in 4 matches, and Djokovic managed to create 16!
Djokovic is favourite in all segments here really, and I think he can settle this one in 3. Great form, durability, excellent play from the field, low number of mistakes, and H2H over Federer should be enough to put Roger away. We will need also little luck for this bet, but for all reasons I wrote, this is some sort of value bet.
Guest post by: Aleksandar Ilić, writer at TripletaSport
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Explanation: player statistics (a/b c)
a - games played this season
b - goals scored
c - team position (d - defender, m - midfielder, f - forward, g - goalkeeper).
