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English Premier League Title Fight: Late Sep Situation

English Premier League Title Fight: Late September Situation

After almost a month since the last analysis of the outright market here at Injuries and Suspensions, it’s time to have a look at how the market is looking at this moment.

The bets to guess who will lift the Premiership title are perhaps the most prestigious long-term betting market in the world of football. Unlike the Champions League, there are 38 rounds, and the odds move all the time not just after, but during the rounds too.


Ronaldo’s Return: Still not an Impact in the Outright Market

At the moment, Manchester United have 13 points and they are together with Chelsea and Liverpool with the same 13 points. The Red Devils are 3rd just because of goal difference criteria. They even have scored more goals than any other EPL team so far after 5 rounds.

However, in the outright market, The Red Devils are not the favorites to win the EPL. Actually, they are far from that.

MUFC has average odds of 6.22 to win again the EPL trophy. Manchester City, with three points less than they have, are the favorites with much smaller odds of 2.80!

In fact, Manchester City has significantly lower odds than the team that has just celebrated the return of Ronaldo to the UK wearing red.

It looks like the market is a bit skeptical at this stage and the recent past of the Premiership is being considered more relevant than a good start of CR7 wearing red again.

Are the current odds valuable and 6.22 is a bargain? You decide!


Chelsea Taken Seriously Again

If the Blues hadn’t lifted the UCL trophy, perhaps the good start of the season with the exact same results and transfer window movements would have translated in different odds than we have now.

That’s exactly how the betting markets work: expectations are translated into bets that ultimately affect the odds.

Chelsea did not have radical changes in their squad since the last season, and while Lukaku’s expensive return to Stamford Bridge is surely a good addition to the squad, we can surely say that the last UEFA Champions League Final changed the perception and the level of confidence of the world in the Blues.

In fact, the title probably made the team feel more confident to the coming season, after all, the betting markets really believed that Guardiola’s side would win against Tuchel’s Chelsea in the 2020/2021 Final of the UCL



Man City considered the favorites to win the English Premier League isn’t exactly breaking news in the context of the last EPL seasons. However, we can surely say that the reputation of Chelsea improved significantly. Moreover, MUFC fans may be happy with Ronaldo’s return, but the market surely needs to see more consistency here than 5 games to move the odds of the outright market in a different direction.

It’s fair to say, however, that there’s a chance that the average odds of 6.22 of MUFC to win the current EPL season may be valuable and it could drop fast if Man United remains at the top in the coming rounds.


Guest post by: Dragon-Casino-Bonus.co.uk



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Explanation: player statistics (a/b c)

a - games played this season

b - goals scored

c - team position (d - defender, m - midfielder, f - forward, g - goalkeeper).

September 25, 2021 at 10:37 am